Fate of Iran Revolutionary Guards commander uncertain amid conflicting reports

Contradictory reports have created confusion over the fate of Esmail Qaani, the commander of the overseas arm of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guards (IRGC).
He travelled to Lebanon after the killing of Hizbullah leader Hassan Nasrallah in an Israeli air strike on September 27th, and had not been heard from after further Israeli bombings of south Beirut late last week.
While concerns had been raised over whether he had been killed or wounded, Iran’s semi-official IRGC Tasnim news agency quoted Gen Ebrahim Jaabari as saying that Qaani, the Quds Force commmander, was fine and would be awarded the Fath (conquest) medal in the coming days.
This claim has been countered by circumstantial Iran-sourced foreign media reports that Qaani and senior officers had been detained by Iranian authorities for questioning over the infiltration of the IRGC by Israel’s intelligence agency.
The location of Nasrallah, Lebanon’s Hizbullah leader, was revealed by the Israeli intelligence sources before he was assassinated in Beirut. Suspicions of serious security breaches deepened after his likely successor, Hashem Safieddine, was targeted on October 4th during a meeting of the movement’s Shura advisory council. Israel’s military has not confirmed his death.
Qaani arrived in Lebanon two days after Nasrallah was killed “to assess the situation on the ground”, according to UK-based Middle East Eye website. Qaani declined the invitation to attend the meeting convened by Safieddine and disappeared for two days after the attack before returning to Iran.
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Israel has eliminated the majority of Hizbullah’s senior military commanders during the past two months.
A source close to Hizbullah told Middle East Eye that the security breaches were “100 per cent Iranian and there is no question about that” and said Qaani was being interrogated under the supervision of Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Qaani’s chief of staff, Ehsan Shafiq, is also eportedly under investigation.
The IGRC was previously blamed for failing to protect Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh, who was staying at an IRGC guest house when he was killed by an Israeli device in July while in Tehran for the inauguration of president Masoud Pezeshkian.
Qaani was appointed commander of the Quds force, Iran’s external military branch, following the January 2020 US assassination of Gen Qassem Soleimani.
The Qaani affair could create divisions within the IRCG at a time Tehran is expecting an Israeli retaliatory attack in response to Iran’s firing of about 180 ballistic missiles at Israel on October 1st.
US president Joe Biden has expressed opposition to Israeli strikes on Iran’s nuclear and oil facilities. Israel may instead focus on IRGC, army and air force installations to undermine Iran’s ability to defend itself.